Relationship Between Annual Rainfall Oscillations and Mohair Production in Lesotho Between 1935 and 1996

Abstract

This study was conducted to determine trends in annual rainfall oscillations and mohair production in Lesotho between 1935 and 1996. An exponential regression equation of the form LnY = LnA + bx was used to estimate trends. Between 1935 and 1965 Angora goat numbers, mohair production and mohair yield per goat increased (p<0.01) at annual rates of 1.1, 1.9 and 1.1%, respectively. During years of independence (1966-1996) annual goat numbers remained, largely, stagnant (p>0.05) at around one million animals. Mohair yield per goat declined (p<0.01) at an annual rate of 1.2% to around 0.85 kg in 1996. Similarly, mohair production declined (p<0.01) at an annual rate of 1.2% to 970,000 kg in 1996. A long-term (1935-1996) annual rainfall mean of 700 mm was calculated. There were recurrent wet (rainfall above long-term mean) and dry (rainfall below long-term mean) years. However, no clear alternate rainfall oscillations of wet and dry years were observed. It was, thus, difficult to predict years of drought (rainfall below long-term mean) from alternate annual rainfall oscillations. A positive but non-significant (p>0.05) relationship between annual mohair yield per goat (kg) and rainfall (mm) was observed. Policy implications of the results on drought preparedness are discussed.